Yesterday, when I was walking my dog, I came across three gentlemen (one of whom was my friend, Tom) who were talking about the upcoming Presidential election and were poking fun at Joe Biden’s age. I recall one saying, “He’s senile”, and another saying, “He doesn’t even know who he is”. “HaHaHa”.
That’s pretty funny. Of course, the same thing could have been said about Ronald Reagan in his second term. (And, I voted for him…twice!)
But, wait a minute…I’m old, and those guys who were poking fun at Biden were also old farts, too. Are we senile just because we’re over 70?
Actually, my MAGA neighbor friends probably haven’t done much research on this subject. I wonder if they know who was the oldest President to ever be elected? It was…DONALD TRUMP…who was 70 years old when he took office. He will be 74 if he gets elected to a second term, only four years younger than Joe Biden would be in January, 2021.
I think the important question is not how old someone is, but how many brain cells are still working in their heads. Warren Buffett, is 89 years old, and is considered the savviest investor in the world.
Joe Biden sometimes gets confused, but publicly presents himself as a guy who is sincere, knowledgeable, and dedicated to democracy. He’s experienced and will likely surround himself with experts who will help him govern, if elected. He can still talk in an articulate manner while chewing gum.
President Trump confuses himself, his staff, and the American public on a regular basis. He comes off as totally insincere, knows little about the Constitution that he’s sworn to defend, and appears uncommitted to our democratic form of government. He thinks he is the government, and he surrounds himself with third-rate supplicants. His public speaking is hard to watch; he can’t even read a prepared speech on teleprompter in a convincing manner.
The question is: Which one of these two candidates exhibit the superior mental health?
This morning, one neighbor friend of mine pooh-poohed coronavirus modeling efforts and another hyped the supposed curative properties of hydroxychloroquine. I could tell they had just absorbed the morning’s Fox News propaganda.
My friend Galen told me that the infection/death modeling “curves” had all been too pessimistic, that’s there’s no way that we will see 200,000 deaths or anything like that in America. The implication: let’s “re-open the economy”.
I think he’s right about those models, thank Goodness. Of course, the early modeling was done when the outbreak first hit our shores and “stay-at-home” restrictions were not in place. The modeling at that time, back in February, was alarmingly dire…because the American response had been minimal, and the Trump Administration was publicly denying that anyone was in danger. Epidemiologists were panicked; there was no assurance that America would respond in the way it did.
It was only when the States began employing quarantine measures, and the Trump Administration reluctantly followed by suggesting “stay-at-home” and “wear masks” guidelines, that epidemiologists could re-calibrate the models downward because of anticipated changes in societal behavior. They were elated to do so. As the restrictions tightened, the dire predictions lessened. That’s good news.
This argument about over-hyped modeling is disingenuous. If a family is starving to death, and a good Samaritan sends them food to save them, were they never starving in the first place? Obviously, the mitigation changed the outcome of the original prediction (starvation).
This story is not yet complete, as the pandemic has not ended it fateful run in the United States. We are currently experiencing over 2,000 deaths per day; at that rate, grieving citizens will have buried another 60,000 relatives by mid-May. That would put the death toll at about 85,000, which is twice the number of good men we lost in Vietnam. And, according to epidemiologists, who study pandemics, we can expect this cursed plague to drag on into the Summer.
If we, as a country, do something foolish, like re-open the economy too quickly, we could experience a “second wave” of infection, similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. If that happens, those early Covid-19 modeling efforts will look optimistic.
My neighbor Jim was touting hydroxychloroquine this morning, mentioning some guy who’d recovered from Covid-19 and was sure that its use saved his life. I saw the same story on Fox News.
The fellow in question was lying in the hospital, not doing well at all, and was Web-surfing prayer sites when he found someone who was touting hydroxychloroquine. To make a long story short, he asked his doctors to be treated with it, he recovered from Covid-19, and he credits it with his miraculous healing.
This is the type of anecdotal “facts” that Fox News is famous for. Hydroxychloroquine may have had something to do with his recovery, and so could the prayers he was offering. And, it is also possible that he would have recovered without either of those miracles, because 95 percent of people with Covid-19 infection recover from the virus.
The scientific jury on hydroxychloroquine vs. Covid-19 is still out. There has been no legitimate, large-scale study on the subject, although several are on-going.
A recently-announced study of 150 patients in China (half using the drug, the other half getting a placebo) determined that hydroxychloroquine did not have curative powers, could have had an impact in relieving some symptoms, and impacted some patients with side effects.
Another study, by French doctors, studied the records of 181 patients. It found no statistically significant difference in death rates or chances of being admitted to the ICU between patients who were afforded hydroxychloroquine and those who were not.
Of course, these limited studies have not been quoted by President Trump nor hyped by Fox News, because they don’t advance the cause…of finding a justification for the economy being re-opened as soon as possible.
Larger studies are on-going, and it would be wonderful if it could be proven that hydroxychloroquine was the answer. The vast majority of doctors aren’t believers, but, of course, they don’t have the medical pedigree of the President. Maybe he’s right…for once.
The earlier, much-hyped French study that “Doctor” Trump labeled a “game changer” was found, upon close inspection, to be flawed, and was removed from the scientific literature.
As of today, there is no laboratory, clinical, or hospital evidence that hydroxychloroquine is any more effective in curing Covid-19 than prayer or wearing a rabbit’s foot. Like a lot of things that get publicity on Fox News, the information disseminated has more to do with propaganda than truth. Boiled down to its essence, it’s political entertainment.
My friend Galen and his wife Sherrie dropped by yesterday to have drinks with us out in the backyard, separated by our fire pit. They were excited about the prospect of the “stay-at-home” orders being relaxed soon. He again reiterated his view that the pandemic had been overblown and that people need to get back to work.
But, then, the four of us talked about how this pandemic had changed our attitudes about living…in the near future. We all agreed that it would take some time for us to feel safe engaging in social activities like going to a theatre, a sporting event, a big restaurant, a casino, a neighborhood potluck dinner, a theme park, or even getting into an elevator. Charlie and I mentioned going on a cruise…not going to happen. I believe that Sherrie raised the specter of flying in a crowded aircraft…would seem very unsafe.
These thoughts are probably not unique to us. And, that is one reason why the economic recovery that we all hope for will be… slow.
Today is Thursday, April 16th. Yesterday afternoon, President Trump apparently had a conference call with a bunch of business leaders about his plan to “re-open the economy”. One participant in the conference call didn’t even know that the Prez would be calling. It appears that this impromptu “meeting” was the task force event that Trump had been promising. In it he basically reviewed what he was considering and apparently asked for feedback. The same guy who was surprised by being called said he was not comfortable with a rapid re-opening of the restricted economy: it was too soon.
Anyway, the news this morning is that President Trump is going to press state Governors hard to re-open the economy, which is discouraging considering that yesterday was America’s deadliest day of the pandemic, with over 2,500 fatalities.
If a terrorist blew up a New York hotel and killed 100 people, Trump would be apoplectic. But, evidently, he is comfortable when 25 times that many people are succumbing to disease each day. It’s no big thing.
It is hard to see how allowing people to mingle will help ease this horrendous slaughter.
And, it is difficult for me to imagine the American public just shaking off the memory of the pandemic and flooding into football stadiums, high-rise buildings, and political conventions.
I believe that the return to normal behavior will be a slow transition, particularly since the Covid-19 menace is still out there, doing Evil, in the absence of a vaccine. This means that economic vitality will be slow to rebound.
I hate to even bring this up, but I think something silly is helping to push society/Trump toward the early lifting of restrictions.
That “something” is sports.
Professional baseball, football, and basketball, and college sports, particularly football and basketball, are part of the fabric of American society. They are absent now. This leaves a large void in many peoples’ lives.
In many places, like Green Bay, Birmingham, and Chapel Hill, the local sports team is the heart and identity of the city. Particularly in the Midwest and South, where there’s not a wide variety of things to do, going to a sporting event, cheering one at the local bar, or having friends over to scream at “bad calls” in the confines of your man cave, is a societal ritual. There’s a huge void in these locales right now. Sports junkies have nothing to watch on TV.
Many cities in the Midwest and South are itching to resume normal activity, because college football season is coming. Not coincidentally, these locales are: (a) areas where the pandemic has had the least impact thus far; and, (b) states where Donald Trump has strong political support. Professional and college sports are also HUGE drivers of programming on the Fox Network.
Just sayin’
I can’t think of a worst nightmare for an epidemiologist than the vision of a jam-packed college football stadium amidst a viral pandemic. Conversely, I can visualize Mr. Covid-19 licking his chops, like Bin Laden and his associates when they thought of the vulnerability of the Twin Towers.
Please Mr. President and the state Governors: please don’t get ahead of yourselves!