President Trump says he trusts his gut over science, facts, etc. According to him, his native instincts on important matters are “perfect”. It’s the primary reason why he doesn’t need expert advisors.
I trust my gut, too, but am not that cocksure that the thing is right 100 percent of the time. I voted for George W. Bush, for God’s sake.
I am going out on a limb here, but I have a building feeling in my gut that President Trump will not seek re-election in the Fall.
Go ahead…laugh.
My gut says that most Americans believe that the Trump Administration’s response to the coronavirus pandemic has been flaccid, at best, and inept, at worst.
Many thousands of Americans are going to die because of poor White House leadership, and most voters are going to accept this fact by summertime. Let’s face it, Seinfeld’s George Costanza could have done better.
The routine Trump technique of blaming others for his mistakes is not going to work this time. As Abraham Lincoln said, “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.”
Unfortunately for Donald Trump, there was a pandemic, which was no one’s fault, but it occurred on his watch…so he’s responsible for how it was handled by the Federal government. “The CDC, the NIH, FEMA…they blew it!”, he will say. Unfortunately, they all work for him; there’s no changing that.
The Prez is now trying to blame the World Health Organization for not alerting the U.S. sooner about the pandemic.
That argument doesn’t hold water, though, because other countries heeded the W.H.O. alerts, while Trump didn’t, and now the countries that paid attention have flattened the infection and death curves while our Covid-19 casualties dwarf all other countries. And, each day of the passing week sported a new daily death toll high in the United States. The epidemic is still in full swing here, and yet testing for the virus is, still, unavailable to most people. And we’re supposed to be the “greatest country in the world”! How can this happen?
The pandemic buck stops at the White House.
My gut tells me that America has yet to see the bottom of the economic collapse. I wish it weren’t so, but the indicators are bleak. This hurts Donald Trump to the core of his being, because he has championed prosperity under his Administration. He claimed the economy as his own. And, then, he got Hoovered.
As of mid-April, in an election year, our tribal Chief has pretty much emptied his quiver of economic stimulus arrows: prime interest rate of zero; cash sent to most American households; promises of bailout funds to small businesses; and, billions of dollars in bailout for major corporations.
Trump is now leading a Socialist government only a few months after accusing Bernie Sanders of being a Communist. His Republican Party is getting far too comfortable with printing money to solve problems. Private enterprise is on the dole and bread lines are forming. Bold ideas are lacking.
My gut informs me that there is going to be some nasty fall-out when voters realize how the $2.5 trillion in economic triage was distributed by Trump’s Small Business Administration to needy businesses. Already, less than two weeks after the $350 billion in assistance for “small businesses” was authorized, it is gone…all used up.
No one knows yet where it went, but the twelve small businesses that Charlie helped to apply for funds haven’t yet sniffed a dime.
However, on the news this morning, we heard that Ruth’s Chris Steakhouses received $20 million from the SBA pot. (If you don’t know about Ruth’s Chris, be advised that a person would go there if he could afford to pop for a $500 meal. Probably 90 percent of Americans can’t afford to step into one of these restaurants, and very few communities have one.)
On the other hand, one of our clients, a doctor who owns and operates an Urgent Care hospital which serves a large community and sports a bi-weekly payroll of $76,000 has received $0, as in bupkis, nada, zilch..
It is our doctor client’s suspicion, as well as mine, that banks’ largest customers got first crack at those emergency funds, not the “small businesses” that populate Main Streets in every city and town.Something like 50 percent of American workers are employed at those small establishments. They are dying right now, with no help forthcoming from Uncle Sam.
Congress is hesitating to re-fill the SBA rescue funding pot, partially because they’re not happy with the way that this is playing out. They must answer to constituents in November, many of whom used to work for those struggling small businesses. Relief is needed…yesterday.
Of equal concern is the destination of the remaining $2 trillion in funds authorized by Congress. Quite a large portion of that money was allocated for distribution to large businesses that are suffering, like airlines. With the amount of bailout funds so large, and so much discretion allowed to the Administration to distribute it, Congress was wary about “politics” playing a major role, so they insisted on a “watchdog” entity to report on the payouts. President Trump almost immediately indicated that there would be no independent watchdog; it would be him.
Okay, but this puts a very heavy political onus on the President. If any of these funds are found to have been distributed to “friends of the President”, it will be fodder for his opponent in November. And, knowing Mr. Trump, politics are going to play a major role in how he doles out those funds. He can’t help it; he will shoot himself in the foot, and there will be a public outcry like there was when the folks who caused the mortgage banking collapse in 2008 used bailout monies to buy-back stock.
My gut noticed today that the Trump Re-Election committee has filed a lawsuit against a television station that aired Democratic ads pillorying the President by using actual film clips of dismissive public statements made the Chief Executive as the coronavirus drama escalated. Heck, that sucks when you can’t even deny that you made dishonest, misleading, and/or stupid statements. The candidate ends up running against himself, while the other party can run a campaign on issues and look…grown up.
My gut tells me that the G.O.P. is fearful that Trump’s own big mouth will be his demise. The President can look forward to six more months of being made to look the fool. He’s going to hate that and will probably do some rash things…causing himself to be even more foolish and less Presidential than before.
My gut instinct is that Trump, who prides himself as a “winner”, will tire of the relentless pounding from the pandemic and economic collapse, and from being beaten up by opponents and the press. He will see that, even if re-elected, the next four years are going to be miserable, particularly for a guy who promised voters that, if he was elected, America would get “tired of winning”.
This year, and the next four, are going to be hard work. That’s not particularly promising for a guy who likes to golf, watch TV, Tweet, snack on cheeseburgers, and conduct rallies promoting his supposed accomplishments.
People who are out of work and can’t feed their families are not going to give a shit how Donald Trump’s “wall” is progressing. Millions of MAGA supporters are among those who are now unemployed; they’re going to want to get back to work, and they’re going to need action, not promises. Snake oil won’t cut it.
My gut is also reminding me that Donald Trump didn’t want to run against Joe Biden. The former V.P. was the most experienced Democratic candidate from the get-go, which was apparent as the G.O.P. spent a lot of time trying to get him to abandon his candidacy. Republican agents used most of the Impeachment drama trying to make it a referendum on mysterious Joe Biden & Son shenanigans in the Ukraine.
The G.O.P. basically unloaded a shotgun at Biden, from close range, and failed to wound him. Recent polls find Biden running a very competitive race with Trump, and some have him with a decisive lead six months from election day.
Of course, the G.O.P. could, and probably will, play some voter suppression hardball and try to steal the election. They’re pretty accomplished at this in the South and Midwest.
However, the states that are going to determine the next President are those swing states where the pandemic and economic collapse have been severe…the ones with the most affected people.
My gut envisions some sort of scenario where the President privately acknowledges to the G.O.P. brass that he just doesn’t have the stomach for another four years, Republican Party big-wigs secretly ready Vice President Pence or some other fall guy for the role, and then a big announcement comes, prior to the Republican Convention, that the President has a medical condition and he has been advised by his doctors to drop from consideration in 2020. Or, he has been offered to host a reality TV show on the Fox Network which he simply cannot pass up.
This would enable Donald Trump to declare yet another imagined victory and ride off into the sunset.
I think that this scenario is 50-50 right now. If the pandemic lingers, and the economic re-opening falls flat, I would up the odds on this prediction to 70-30 by the end of May.
I could be wrong, but my gut says, “Don’t count on it.”