I just finished reading a very interesting book called The Uninhabitable Earth by David Wallace-Wells.
It has to do with the ongoing heating of planet Earth due to the burning of fossil fuels…something popularly known as “global warming”…and the ramifications that this has for human beings.
Climate scientists, for the past 60 years, have been estimating and measuring the presence of greenhouse gasses (i.e. they absorb infrared radiation and radiate heat) in the atmosphere. These gasses, as scientists have predicted, have increased in the atmosphere as the world has developed industrially, primarily driven by the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas.
As the amount of greenhouse gasses has increased, so has the earth’s atmospheric temperature.
Accurate, systematic thermometer readings of temperature have been kept in the United States since 1880. That’s going on 139 years. The five hottest years on record have all happened in the past five years. This is not an aberration, as it has happened all over the world. It is a trend, and not a good one. Climate scientists are not surprised; they predicted it would happen, but not this fast.
This does not bode well for the human species.
As this worldwide reality of atmospheric warming continues, we can expect: (a) higher mortality due to unlivable conditions in many areas; (b) failed crops in currently arable lands; (c) the resurgence of maladies such as malaria and Lyme disease; (d) mass migrations, as economies fail and lands become to hot to occupy; (e) an increase in severe weather events, such as tornadoes, hurricanes, flooding, and wildfires; (f) depletion of the earth’s freshwater stores; (g) unhealthful air to breathe; (h) the possible re-introduction of various diseases that have been trapped in ancient permafrost and polar ice caps, when they begin to melt; and, (i) the submergence of many seaside metropolises and all major ocean shipping ports.
It is an ironic and cruel fact that the industrialized nations in temperate climatic zones have led the way in atmospheric degradation, by burning fossil fuels to sustain their mega-economies and lifestyles of plenty, and, yet, the Third World countries in equatorial, tropical and sub-tropical zones, who have no margin for error with their basic existence, will feel the impact of climate change first.
And, they will be powerless to do anything about it.
Climate change is not a joke, a campaign slogan, or something to be scoffed at, just because it is unfathomable or so inconvenient that one must cover his or her ears to avoid contemplating it. This matter is existential, something that must be dealt with A.S.A.P. by the entire world, acting in concert. And, that is easier said than done.
Excuse the melodramatic pause, here, but our generation could determine if there is going to be a recognizable, inhabitable world in 100 years.
Human beings have existed, more or less in our current form, for tens of thousands of years. It was only during the past 200 years that our species began to significantly impact the earth’s atmosphere. It began with the Industrial Revolution, i.e with the burning of coal to power engines of manufacturing in Great Britain.
In the past thirty years, though, over half of all the carbon-based exhaust emitted to the atmosphere throughout human history has been generated. This has happened despite the knowledge by scientists and politicians alike that we human beings are poisoning our own atmosphere.
More carbon in the atmosphere equals higher atmospheric heat. Period. It’s basic atmospheric science.
In 1992, the United Nations established its climate change framework. In 2016, with the signing of the Paris Agreement, the vast majority of the nations of the world, agreed to work toward holding the atmospheric carbon concentration to 400 parts per million.
The United States government, under Donald Trump, repudiated the Agreement shortly after he was elected.
The current monthly average of carbon concentration in the atmosphere is 411 ppm, and rising.
The Paris Agreement established a 2 degree global warming by 2100 goal. It was a “best case” scenario, given the unlikely prospect of industrialized nations rapidly curbing their insatiable appetites for fossil fuels.
Humanity has caused, in 170 years, about a 1.2 percent increase in atmospheric temperature. We have already noticed, in recent years, dramatic increases in the melting of polar ice, increases in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes, and an increase in the frequency and intensity of devastating wildfires in the the western states of America.
At 2 percent atmospheric warming, fresh water scarcity will be a problem for 400 million humans, and major cities in equatorial climate zones will become unlivable. Carbon concentration in the atmosphere would be 500 ppm or more. The last time this was the case, sixteen million years ago, the atmosphere was somewhere between 5 to 8 degrees hotter, and sea level was 130 feet higher.
Under that scenario, London, New York City, Singapore, Tokyo, Stockholm, Rome, Hong Kong, and Washington D.C. would be underwater, just to name a few cities, as would all current seaside ports throughout the world.
Unfortunately, the 2 degree warming goal will not be met. At the current rate of degradation, the United Nations is estimating that the atmosphere will heat by 4.5 degrees by the year 2100. If this occurs, it would be catastrophic for the human race.
According to the geologic record, there have been several extinction level events in the earth’s history. The last one was 65 million years ago, when the dinosaurs went extinct. This event also occurred when the earth’s atmospheric temperature increased rapidly over a short period of time due to volcanic pollution, an asteroid hitting the earth, or other natural phenomena.
The current polluted state of the atmosphere is, however, of man’s doing. Therefore, unless things change dramatically in the next couple of generations, human beings face the prospect of engineering their own extinction.
No one wants to hear or believe this. This is why global warming “deniers” are replete on Fox News and in the Trump Administration, telling people that global warming is “fake news”, and diverting attention to other matters.
Most deniers are shills for the oil and coal industries, which are major political campaign contributors.
President Trump this past week announced the establishment of a task force to, again, review global warming. Trump’s proposed chairman of this supposedly-objective committee is not a climate scientist but, you guessed it, a denier. Does anyone doubt what the conclusions of this “study” will be? I’m sure that the conclusions have already been written (by energy lobbyists).
Global warming is a problem contributed to by everyone. Surely, “green” lifestyle choices by every human being, such as minimizing energy use, recycling, dietary changes, etc. would help minimize the problem to a degree.
However, most of the carbon-based air pollution in the atmosphere is generated by industry (agriculture and manufacturing), the exhaust of motorized vehicles, and the biological consequences of elective de-forestation. The only way to significantly modify the carbon footprint of these actors is for governments throughout the world, working in concert, to adopt stringent regulations and work toward “green” alternatives to current practices.
And, do so immediately.
This is easier said than done. Emerging industries in heretofore Third World countries are key to improving improving living conditions for their citizens. It is difficult for those needy folks to be told to put the brakes on their short-term aspirations and sacrifice for long-term objectives. And, of course, the elites that control the world’s major established economies are hesitant to do anything that would upset the status quo, which is a money maker for them and their progeny.
“We’ll deal with this later!”, is the easiest answer.
That is the problem, in a nutshell. Very few politicians, worldwide, want to seriously tackle the hard problems; it’s difficult to ask industries and citizens to make hard choices. “Let the other guy sacrifice.”
I am not encouraged by the current state of world politics. Nationalism (the politics of “Me, first”) is the current rage. Many countries, like the United States under Donald Trump, are retreating into themselves, focusing on their own vested interests to the exclusion of global issues.
This will continue to be a problem if the people of the world do not demand more from their political leaders.
In the meanwhile, as the earth’s atmosphere continues its diabolical warming toward an apocalyptic conclusion, the public, as a whole, is more focused on immediate “trending” issues, like the features of the next I-phone, an unnecessary border wall, and what the Kardashian family is doing this week. Or, what Donald Trump just tweeted.
As the saying goes, “You get what you deserve.”