The Russian invasion of neighboring Ukraine marches on. It’s a big country and it will be difficult for Putin’s boys to totally capture and govern. It could end up like Afghanistan for the Russians, bogged down in a guerrilla war for years.
Meanwhile, the Western nations have basically pulled the plug on the Russian economy, inflicting severe hardships on that country with various sanctions. Imports of Russian goods are being banned in many countries, fewer countries are willing to purchase Russian energy, major financial institutions are bailing on Russia, big-name corporations are declaring that they won’t do business in Russia anymore, and the ruble, the Russian dollar, has plummeted in value.
Vladimir Putin might win the battle for Ukrainian real estate, but his country might, in the process, go down the tubes economically.
The United States and its allies seem to be ratcheting up the pressure daily, in effect declaring economic war against Russia.
What will be the tipping point, when Vladimir Putin either throws in the towel or pushes all of his chips into the pot via some obscene action. The guy is a high stakes player, for sure, and he is an excellent bluffer. Putin is dangerous and, now, desperate.
He’s already publicly noted that his nuclear forces are on alert. I’m sure they are, as are ours. Anybody pushing that button will basically end life as we know it. So, that scenario is doubtful.
He might use some thuggish tactics (WMD’s) in Ukraine, like chemical weapons. This would not be out of character for Russia, who helped Assad in Syria do the same thing. If those things start to fall in Ukraine, it might provoke the Western powers to step in militarily. That’s a horrible thought.
The economic sanctions directed at Russia are tantamount to a “blockade”, which can be interpreted as an act of war. In Russia’s view, the U.S. is now at war with their country.
In modern geopolitics, nations that don’t feel like duking out their differences on a battlefield often resort to escalating provocations; i.e. warning shots across the bow, to use an old Navy term. “Watch out, Buddy, or I’m going to really get mad!”
I think that the most probably Russian response to Western economic sanctions will come in the way of cyberwarfare. When it is used properly, the hacking can be devastating to infrastructure and can be denied, as well. “We deny doing this! We have no idea who those hackers are! It could be the North Koreans or the Chinese; who knows?”
I am sure that our NSA cyber experts are anticipating this and probably have scenarios where the U.S. can “return the favor” to Russia via some untraceable cyber mischief.
In a digital society, the superpowers have not only the capability of destroying each other with nuclear bombs but, also, with dancing fingers on a keyboard.
It could get nasty. Desperate people do desperate things.
Where do we go from here?