It smells a lot lately like a shooting war is developing in the Ukraine.
Most Americans couldn’t find this country on a map if their lives depended upon it. It is located in central Europe, bordered by the Black Sea on the south, Russia on the north, and several countries including Poland, Slovakia, Moldova, Romania, and Hungary on the west. It is simultaneously one of the largest grain exporting countries in the world and the poorest nation in Europe.
The Ukraine used to be part of the Soviet Union before that country broke into many parts in 1991. Since that time, Ukraine has tried to keep a neutral position between Russia and the N.A.T.O. bloc countries. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin opposes this and has instigated a lot of political and military mischief to regain control of the Ukraine.
One of his cute ploys was to infiltrate “Little Green Men” (Russian combat soldiers in non-descript camoflauge outfits) into the Ukraine, posing as citizen soldiers opposed to the government. Another clever antic was to smear the Ukrainian President (and President Biden’s son Hunter) with allegations of graft and official misconduct, a ruse that was perpetuated by Republicans in Congress and the Trump for President 20204 campaign.
Russia now seems poised to undertake a military attack on Ukraine, something that the Western powers oppose. Ukrainian officials have asked for N.A.T.O. protection and it appears that the United States, Britain, France and Germany are willing to help. President Biden today warned President Putin of “swift and severe costs” if Russia invades the Ukraine.
Who knows how far this gamesmanship will go? Why should Americans care about this?
Well, Vladimir Putin is a very clever strategist and his goal has always been to reconstitute the former Soviet Union empire. Because of its agricultural bounty, the Ukraine was always considered the “breadbasket” of Russia. It also fronts on the Black Sea, which Russia considers its own private lake. The idea that Ukraine might possibly join N.A.T.O. and foreign warships might have a friendly port in the Black Sea is repugnant to Russians.
Russia, although a large, strategically located country (straddles Europe and Asia), is underdeveloped economically. Its gross domestic product (a measure of economic activity) is $1.6 trillion, which places it far behind the largest countries in Europe, and only a fraction of the strength of the largest economies (United States and China). For example, the State of California has a GDP twice the size of Russia.
So, if Putin’s ambitions are to be achieved, he needs to develop his economy. Up until now, he and his henchmen have feasted upon the carcass of the old Soviet Union, seizing for their own industries and assets. They have also resorted to criminal enterprise, like stealing technology and hacking worldwide computer networks for ransom. The term for this kind of government is kleptocracy, or rule by thieves.
More recently, the Russia has begun to develop its vast strategic resources, like oil and natural gas, to feed the ravenous industries and populations of Western Europe. The world’s longest pipeline (Nord Stream) connects the plentiful natural gas of Eastern Russia with Germany. Although it is a legitimate money maker for Russia, it also serves as leverage against N.A.T.O. countries (particularly Germany) from becoming too frisky, lest Russia cut off the supply and starve German industries of energy.
The oil-rich nations of the Middle East have been playing this game for one hundred years.
So, add extortion to the several tools that Vladimir Putin has at his disposal to affect the politics of Europe. He probably feels enabled by this Sword of Damocles hanging over Germany to attempt an “in-plain-sight” acquisition of the Ukraine, with only token resistance by N.A.T.O.
Adolf Hitler began his Third Reich by intimidation and gobbling up small territories, while simply professing that he was unifying Aryan peoples that had always been Germanic. No biggee. That is essentially what Putin is attempting… to re-unify historic Russians to the Mother Country. In this case, however, the Ukraine is one of the most populous countries in Europe (40 million people) and they have demonstrated by their choice of leaders that they do not want to become part of Putin’s empire.
This could become a very messy war, if one was to erupt. World War I began with the assassination of a Hungarian archduke and rapidly got out of control. It seems that people in the bowels of Europe are constantly itching for a fight. And this region is just north of the Middle East, which has been “at war” pretty much constantly since the dawn of time.
The major superpowers, the United States and China, have strategic interests in this region, not to mention the goal of keeping Russia contained in its own playground. No one wants Vladimir Putin to get into any more mischief than he already has.
And my grandson Craig is going into the Navy in a few months. I sure don’t want him sailing into harm’s way.
Poor President Biden: he has China bobbing and weaving in the Pacific Theatre, making moves designed to reduce American influence there, and now he has to contend with Vladimir Putin making a nuisance of himself in Europe. It’s almost as if they’ve teamed up to torment his Administration.
Back in his own country, the President is tackling the pandemic, inflation, those pesky Republicans, and the ghost of Donald Trump.
Oh, well, he wanted the job.