The United States Constitution is silent on the subject of political parties.
The Founding Fathers did not originally intend for American politics to be partisan. And yet, for most of the Nation’s history there have been political parties, and for the past 160 years there have been two predominant parties: Republicans and Democrats.
I suppose that having political parties is a good thing, in that the “platform” of each party (i.e. the policy goals) helps to simplify the public’s task of voting by relegating a candidate’s personality to a place of less importance. If that candidate is a Republican, for example, we can expect that individual to pursue Republican goals once elected.
This presupposes that the political party’s policy goals remain relatively static; i.e. if the Party supports free capitalism during an election, then one would expect that policy goal to be pursued after the election. “Bait and switch” is not kosher when selling someone a consumer item and it is not acceptable in politics, either.
If someone (Bush Sr.) says, “Read my lips…no new taxes!”, then voters should expect him to avoid new taxes like the plague. Of course, any politician who promises something unrealistic (like building an impenetrable wall on the Mexican border) is just blowing smoke, and well-informed voters should avoid that guy. Promising not to raise taxes when one can’t predict the future is also…stupid.
My Dad was a conservative Republican; in fact, he was a far-right conservative who read Birch Society stuff back in the 1960’s, loved Winston Churchill, felt strongly for Barry Goldwater. He was a good man who taught me right from wrong, gave me my values, and always did the “right thing”. He had some racist tendencies (which most Caucasians at that time did) but was a fair man who treated all people respectfully. I got my basic political education from him. He was my hero.
I have been an “independent” voter for most of my life, not really wanting to be characterized as a member of either of the dominant parties. Sometimes I vote for Republican candidates for President (Nixon twice, Reagan twice, Bush Sr., Bush Jr. twice) and other times for Democratic candidates (Johnson, Carter, Mr. Clinton twice, Obama twice, and Mrs. Clinton). I just recently voted for Joe Biden.
My feeling is that the balance of government (which employed me for 32 years) needs to be adjusted from time to time in order for new ideas to be given a chance to improve the situation. It is not a good thing when one political party, or an elected official, gets too comfortable in positions of power. As Lord Acton said, “Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” I believe this wholeheartedly.
The Republican Party has been struggling for many years to stay relevant while the demographics of the Nation have been changing. The U.S.A. is becoming “browner” and more liberal while the core of the Republican Party is Caucasian and conservative. Religion is becoming less influential in the general populace (church attendance has dropped significantly in the past fifty years), while it has become a major driver of the Republican political base. Younger voters, more educated voters and women tend to identify with the Democratic Party, while aging, male blue-collar and retired voters constitute the core of the Republican base. City dwellers tend to vote Democratic, and the country is become increasingly urban in nature.
The political handwriting has been on the wall for decades. In the past twenty-eight years (comprising eight elections), only a single Republican candidate has won the popular vote for President.
The Republican strategy to counter this demographic change has had several components: (1) Hold the base; (2) Suppress Democratic voting; (3) Demonize the opposition; (4) Deny Democratic policy victories; and (5) Distract the public.
Instead of modifying the policy goals of the Party to reflect the values of younger, smarter, and more diverse citizens, the G.O.P. chose to solidify its political base by pandering to single-issue voters like Protestant Christians, gun right’s activists, anti-regulatory business groups, “law and order” supporters, White Nationalist hate groups, conspiracy theorists, and blue-collar workers whose jobs have disappeared, presumably “stolen” by Mexicans, the Chinese, and other bad actors.
A variety of methods were utilized by the Republican Party to minimize the impact of the burgeoning Democratic voter base.
First, Republican legislators and executives engineered electoral boundaries within their states that virtually assured the victory of a Republican candidate. This is called “gerrymandering”, and it is possible to draw electoral district boundaries in such a way that more Republican candidates than Democratic ones emerge victorious in an election even when the majority of the area’s citizens are registered Democrats. By doing this, “safe” seats were created, meaning that a Congressman, for example, didn’t have to worry much about being reelected and could, therefore, focus on the agenda of the Republican base.
Secondly, various forms of “voter suppression” were instituted by Republican state officials to depress Democratic turnout at elections. In many cases, voter I.D. laws were instituted, polling places were relocated to distant or awkward locations, voting facilities were reduced in Democratic precincts to create lengthy wait times, and early voting and mail-in voting were prohibited. Minorities were stripped from voter registration rolls, requiring those citizens the extra burden to re-register in order to exercise their voting franchise.
And thirdly, voter intimidation was employed in some precincts, wherein law enforcement officers or local goons employed by the G.O.P. as “election observers” hovered near the polling place, tending to discourage and scare-off minority voters.
During “campaign season”, which is ongoing 24/7 for all 535 members of the House of Representatives (since they must stand for reelection every two years), efforts were made to brand their Democratic rivals as “soft on crime”, “free spenders”, “Socialists” or “Communists”, “anti-American”, “business unfriendly”, “atheists”, “guys who want to take your guns away”, “welfare cheat enablers”, “pointy-headed Liberals”, and worse. Right-wing media (Rush Limbaugh, Fox News, etc.) emerged to pound home these themes day and night, often creating the very news that they then reported on. By the time an election was held, the Democratic candidate was firmly established as the Devil’s spawn.
When the Democrats won the Presidency or a statehouse, opposition Republicans used every trick at their disposal to deny the incoming executive substantive achievements, so as to diminish that individual’s credentials in later elections. Partisanship, dirty tricks, and bad sportsmanship became commonplace. The acquisition and use of power became the order of the day; the idea of people working together to solve problems (which is the purpose of government) was lost, gamesmanship reigned, and little work was done by legislative bodies other than spitwad fights.
Accordingly, since nothing was being accomplished by either political party, the public gaze was purposefully misdirected to imagined horrors (“There they go again!”), intentionally misinformed (“fake news”), or a total blackout was levied by spokesmen who failed to answer questions. The public, with lots of questions about an incident of police brutality, for example, would instead be redirected to a made-up achievement or supposed policy initiative of the Republican officeholder. Blame would be shifted to “the other guy”.
Despite these many efforts to hold back the Democratic tide, Republican strategists saw their brand inexorably losing market share over the past fifty years. What to do, they thought.
One thing they could do was take advantage of a flaw of the Constitution, which gives small, rural States an electoral advantage in Senatorial power (each State gets two Senators regardless of size) and, thus, in the Electoral College which determines who wins Presidential elections.
Part of Richard Nixon’s “Southern Strategy” was to lock down these small rural States in the Republican camp by pandering to their peculiar political agenda (“State’s rights”, “gun rights”, protecting religious freedom, xenophobia, racism, etc.) By playing to this region’s hot-button issues, Republican could assure themselves of a minimum of 28 Senatorial seats in the South and Bible Belt regions. That’s pretty good start, because it only takes 51 Senators to assure Republican control of the Senate.
And, if you control the Senate, you control the policy agenda of the Nation.
While only one Republican candidate over the past 28 years has won the popular vote for President (George W. Bush), during that same period Republicans have controlled the Senate for 18 years. This has ensured that Democratic Presidents have seen limited success getting anything accomplished. And, during that time, while demographics were trending more liberal, the Judicial Branch of government was becoming more conservative.
This was accomplished because Presidential nominees for Federal court judgeships must be submitted to the Senate for “advice and consent”. It is possible for the Senate to approve all manner of poorly-qualified judges to lifetime positions, as long as their politics are “correct”, and it is possible for the Senate to stall or reject qualified nominees. The activist Republican-controlled Senate, under Mitch McConnell for the past six years, has done all of these very partisan things, loading up the Federal judiciary with conservative Republican jurists.
Why? The simple political answer is “because it (the Senate) can”, but the actual reason is one of desperation: demographics are trending the Nation more liberal, and the only chance that Republicans have to ensure conservative Federal policies and laws is to place young, conservative judges on the Federal judiciary. This will tilt the government to the right even when it wants to go left.
Some would call this tactic “sour grapes” or “poisoning the well”, but there are few options available to conservative Republicans at this point.
Trumpism is the culmination of Republican frustration over the past few decades and is indicative of total desperation on behalf of the G.O.P. The attitude of many Republican voters reached “Why not a reality TV show host?” level in 2016.
Donald Trump is not really a Republican; in fact, he was a registered Democrat until just before he ran for President in 2016. Many in the Party adamantly opposed his candidacy (“Never Trumpers”) because he had no experience in government, had no discernible moral compass, disdained traditional political norms and traditions, had a history of personal and business failure, and was very obviously a self-absorbed narcissist. He was, however, a ruthless, hard-charging asshole who bullied his way through the 2016 primaries unscathed, making all manner of promises to those folks in the Solid South, the Bible Belt, and the unemployed in the Rust Belt.
On the other hand, he was very media savvy and focused his skills on fanning discord, blaming Democrats for everything wrong with America, and focusing attention on himself. He alone was the answer to all that ailed the country.
Once Trump was elected, the Republican “platform” became anything that Donald Trump wanted, even though it might have conflicted with traditional Republican positions.
The “Party of Lincoln” under Trump became one that openly sought to divide White Americans from colored ones, exponentially increasing racist rhetoric (from the Presidential podium, no less), demonizing Black Lives Matter protesters, calling Mexican immigrants “rapists”, and publicly encouraging and praising police brutality against minorities.
The Republican Party, which had been energized by “Tea Party” fiscal conservatives twenty years ago (balanced budgets, spending caps, “no new taxes”, etc.), became free-spenders once Trump gained power. A huge tax cut was engineered, of which 90 percent of the benefits accrued to the wealthiest 80 percent of Americans. At the same time that the Federal government was cutting tax revenue, the Republicans increased spending, including massive amounts for the military. This ensured an imbalanced budget for the foreseeable future and trillions of dollars added to the National Debt. Republicans, who gleefully called Democrats “tax and spend” liberals in the past, now became “borrow and spend” conservatives. The hypocrisy was startling.
Republican administrations (and Democratic ones, too) in the wake of World War II created a world banking and free trade model which enabled tremendous economic growth for all nations, particularly the United States. Enter the G.O.P. under Donald Trump: imposition of tariffs upon friend and foe alike. The new policy position of the Republican Party was that every nation which enjoys a surplus in trade from America is…our enemy.
Tariffs, which are an indirect tax on U.S. consumers who buy foreign-made products, were imposed on all manner of products. Prior Republican platforms abhorred un-voted upon taxes: now, apparently, that patriotic position (i.e. the Tea Party in Boston) was thrown out the window. Also, since trade partners reciprocated with their own tariffs, the Trump Administration felt compelled to respond with large subsidies to American businesses which had suffered from his ill-advised tariff war. Again, more tax money being spent to prop up businesses: another un-voted upon tax.
Republicans like to boast that they are strong proponents of capitalism, free-enterprise, less government is good, etc. They are the “business-friendly” Party, according to them. However, free enterprise and capitalism are the reasons that businesses have fled America: manufacturers can produce products cheaper, and make more profit, overseas. Profit is the measuring stick of capitalism, so making more profit cannot be bad, right? According to Donald Trump, whose family profits from cheap apparel made in Southeast Asia, these foreigners are “robbing” jobs from Americans. Republicans need to get their story straight.
Republican administrations since World War II have been instrumental in building alliances with other countries throughout the world to counter strategic economic and military threats. President Trump, upon assuming office, instigated a campaign to dissolve virtually all trade agreements, defund NATO, and find an excuse to pull out of the United Nations. America’s standing in the world, as a bastion of freedom and defender of democracy, has plummeted. Relations with our two bordering nations, Mexico and Canada, have deteriorated as America has increasingly been viewed abroad as a bully.
Under the Trump Administration there has been an endless campaign against the traditions, laws, and normal practices that have governed previous Republican and Democratic administrations. Transparency, i.e. the ability of the public to see what the Federal government is doing, has been deliberately minimized. Press conferences have been markedly reduced, and those that occur shed little light but, rather, intentionally mislead the public with obvious falsehoods. Logs of visitors to the White House have been made unavailable to the press, as have been records of who the President meets with at his Mar a Lago compound in Florida.
Over the years, Republicans in Congress have gleefully availed themselves of the ability to oversee Federal government operations, hold investigations, and demand changes in laws and Administration policy (when Democrats held the White House). Under the Trump Administration, the oversight function of Congress has been undermined by instructions from the President to his Cabinet members, advisors, and Administration officials to ignore Congressional requests and/or subpoenas for factual testimony. Top officials who work for the President are subject to Non-Disclosure Agreements, so they face prosecution by Donald Trump if they spill the beans about corruption, wrongdoing, or malfeasance.
Along with this, the internal watchdog function of the Federal government, accomplished by inspectors general in the major agencies, has been emasculated by President Trump with support from his Republican enablers in Congress. “Whistleblowers” have been sought out and fired, despite legal protections enacted through previous bipartisan action. Inspector General positions have been widely eliminated.
Facts and science have driven the American economy for a hundred years, helping it to become preeminent in the world. And yet, under the Trump Administration, a concerted effort has been made to “dumb down” government by replacing experts with political hacks and to publicly disparage and contradict proven science and factual evidence which contradicts policy that the President and the Republican Party advocate. Prime examples of this are opposition to the Paris Treaty on Global Warming, opposition to CDC guidance relative to the coronavirus pandemic, and opposition to the 2020 electoral victory of Joe Biden. “Belief” has conveniently replaced factual evidence in the Republican Party, so that any statement of President Trump is considered “truthful” by his political base.
The Republican Party has long claimed the moral high ground in American politics, claiming to encompass “the moral majority”, claiming to be the “law and order” party, claiming to be the defender “of God and Country”, and regularly disparaging Democrats as less “patriotic” and, to some extent, “anti-American”. And yet, in January 2021, a Republican President and a majority of Republican Congressmen opposed the certification of Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 Presidential contest and incited a mob of 8,000 Trump supporters to storm the Capitol building, trash it, and leave 5 people dead.
This Republican President, the 147 Republican Congressmen, and those fanatical Republican insurrectionists all know, but don’t want to believe, the facts of the 2020 election…because it’s not convenient for them. It means that they will be losing political power for the next four years.
And, to make matters worse, demographic shifts mean that Republican prospects in foreseeable elections are not promising: this reality is the basis of the predominantly White, male rage that was demonstrated on January 6th in Washington D.C.
What is the future of the Republican Party?
Demographics tell us that a lot of old, conservative, White people (who skew Republican) will be dying off in the coming years, to be replaced by a younger, a more diverse and liberal population which tends to vote Democratic.
A large number of mainstream Republicans who voted for Trump because he wasn’t a Democrat, will flip parties in disgust over the Republican anti-democratic coup attempt on January 6th. A majority of Republican Congressmen took a public part in the atrocity and many will be shamed out of office in the 2022 elections by “real” American patriots. How many? It depends on how they act relative to Trump’s second impeachment by Congress and if they publicly renounce their repudiation of the 2020 election results. Otherwise, they will go down in American history as members of the Sedition Caucus, a group of anti-American traitors, their political careers mortally damaged.
I suspect that the Trumpist political base will shrink by at least half as a result of recent developments. Trump and his political brand will not be viable going forward: this rules out the potential “dynasty” involving Donald Jr. or Ivanka. There will still be a core of diehard rabble rousers, and they will continue to affect local elections in the South and the Bible Belt. This will seriously diminish the Republican Party brand.
The upcoming vote on the second impeachment of President Trump will separate the wheat from the chaff, so to speak. Congressmen who vote to convict will immediately earn the scorn of Trump’s hard-core base.
The G.O.P. will need to re-invent itself: perhaps Trumpism retains the soiled “Republican” brand and mainstream Republicans create a new political party. A politically active lady on TV this morning described herself as a “Trumplican” which could be an indication of the developing schism.
That Party is going to have to craft a platform that appeals to people of color, the college educated, and women. In a word, they will need to become more like Democrats to stay relevant. They will need to anticipate and embrace change, rather than being hidebound against it. They will need to develop a vision of America’s future rather than basing their success on dividing, labeling, and trying to scare people about other people. They will need to become more honest and factual. They will need to demonstrate that, despite who’s in power, they can work cooperatively with others to achieve positive societal goals.
The Republican Party needs to shed its image as “The Party of No” and become the party of “Yes we can!”.
“We”, as in all Americans.