It’s October in an election year, so we can expect “breaking news” from the White House designed to boost the Presidential re-election effort.
Yesterday, October 1st, saw news articles about: Republican efforts to challenge vote results in swing states where the President is trailing in the polls; a Trump-signed message included in Dept of Agriculture meals distributed to needed senior citizens (similar to the Donald Trump-signed stimulus checks sent to taxpayers); a press conference where the President claimed that he prevailed in the first debate with Joe Biden (despite the fact that polls indicated that the lost the debate by a 3 to 1 margin); Trump’s insistence that the rules for the debates (which he ignored in the first debate by constantly interrupting Joe Biden) not be changed; and, a lame denial that he gave encouragement to the White Nationalist group “Proud Boys” in the first debate (which he did).
All in all, not much to be surprised about but, rather, more of the same Trump flim-flam.
Today, October 2nd, we awoke to the news of a legitimate October Surprise…President Trump and his wife Melania have tested positive for Covid-19!
This news is not a surprise, per se, because the President has spent the past eight months flaunting his own Coronavirus Task Force’s recommendations on social distancing and wearing of face coverings. His public denial of the severity of the pandemic and cavalier attitude regarding the threat obviously did not impress or deter the apolitical virus. It was really a matter of time before he got himself infected; he played with the bull and got the horns.
Ironically, at some point in the first Presidential debate, the President, who never wears a facemask in public, pulled a prop mask out of his coat pocket, saying that he always carries one in public (but, never wears one!). He then mocked Joe Biden for consistently wearing one in public, not realizing that he was conferring the Covid-19 leadership crown to his opponent.
Let’s all hope that Mr. and Mrs. Trump have mild cases and recover quickly from their illness.
Unfortunately for the President, this October Surprise is going to make it harder for him to prevail in November.
First, assuming his infection to be a mild one, he will have to curtail his campaign activities somewhat during a quarantine period of a week to two weeks. This will affect planned rallies, dinners with supporters, and probably the planned second Presidential debate.
Secondly, it will place more attention on his Vice President, who is scheduled to debate the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris next week. Harris is a formidable debate opponent, having been a District Attorney and an Attorney General before becoming a Senator. After Trump flubbed the first Presidential debate, there will be added pressure on wingman Mike Pence to save face for the Republican Party.
And thirdly, the President’s coronavirus infection will give more attention to his leadership (or lack thereof) during the pandemic, a subject that he was trying to distance himself from in his re-election campaign. The Democrats can be expected to pound away on this subject, as the death toll now approaches 210,000 and testing reveals that Covid-19 infections are surging in most states…exactly what public health officials predicted months ago.
Before he tested positive for Covid-19, President Trump was trailing Joe Biden nationally by a significant margin in most polls. However, as we know, a President is elected via the Electoral College process, so Trump could lose the popular vote (as he did in 2016) and still be re-elected. What really matters are the election results in several “swing” states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, etc.
As mentioned earlier, Republican operatives working with the Trump campaign organization have filed lawsuits in many states in which the President is trailing in the polls, alleging in advance that election procedures are flawed (i.e. that absentee or mail-in ballot provisions allow fraudulent voting, that ballot drop-off locations invite chicanery, etc.) The President has been laying the groundwork for these lawsuits for the past three months or so, publicly announcing that the election is “rigged” (so that he has some cover in the event he loses).
The Electoral College process itself is flawed to the extent that it, too, is ripe for misuse.
For example, candidate Joe Biden might pull an upset in a swing state which has a Republican governor. If the state has ten Electoral votes, then ten delegates would normally be sent to the Electoral College to vote for Joe Biden. However, the Republican governor might refuse to send his state’s delegates to the Electoral College, thereby depriving Mr. Biden of the ten votes that he had won in the election.
This would be political hardball in its most savage form, but it is possible in this very contentious election. It’s just another reason why the Electoral College scheme should be scrapped.
Should all manner of election protests and shenanigans such as the one mentioned above occur after November 3rd, the Supreme Court and the House of Representatives could be called to adjudicate the election.
In 2020, nothing should surprise us.
