In 2016, approximately one hundred and sixteen million Americans who were eligible to vote in the Presidential election did not do so.
Meanwhile, each candidate, Trump and Clinton, garnered about 65 million votes, plus or minus a few million. That’s right: almost as many people didn’t vote as those who did. It was a close election, but either candidate would have won in a landslide if a bunch of those 116 million non-participants had picked a side.
Some people are just too lazy or disinterested to vote. Non-participation in elections is common at all levels of government, from the national level all the way down to local (county, city, district, and homeowners’ associations). When I was in local government, the non-participatory level was a pretty steady one-third of eligible voters. I don’t know why that is, but trust me, there are lots of your fellow citizens who just don’t give a shit. They not only won’t vote in person, but they will not avail themselves of voting by mail, either. Go figure.
Let’s assume that shameful percentage holds to this day, i.e. that one-third of our eligible citizenry sat out the 2016 election because…that’s what they always do.
Okay, 56 percent of eligible voters actually voted, meaning that 44 percent did not. Assuming that one-third (33 percent) of our citizenry never vote, that would mean that were were about 27 million eligible voters (the remaining 11 percent) who normally vote in Presidential elections but did not in 2016, probably because they disliked both candidates or did not think their vote would matter.
(The reader might recall that digital “disinformation” was heavily utilized by the Trump campaign and by the Russian government (per the Mueller Report) to dissuade eligible voters from participating in the 2016 election. A good proportion of those 27 million non-participants could be the product of those voter suppression campaigns.)
In 2016, the Presidential election featured two individuals who had a lot of “baggage”: Clinton, who had been in the political arena for three decades and had some not-so-sparkling moments to her credit; and, Trump, a businessman with multiple bankruptcies on his ledger who had transitioned to a know-it-all TV personality.
People who consistently had voted Democratic found real or imagined reasons not to vote for Clinton (her husband; Benghazi; possible shady business deals), as did a legion of Republican “Never Trumpers”, who determined Donald Trump to be inexperienced and morally untethered and could not stomach the blowhard.
For these reasons, a block of the non-participants sat on their hands in 2016…for reasons of principle, they thought.
Another cohort among the non-participants was the dim-witted bunch who fell for the “your vote doesn’t matter” campaign by the G.O.P./Russian agents who may, or may not, have been working in tandem. Their vote WOULD have mattered, as it turned out.
I think the 2020 election, should Donald Trump actually run against Joe Biden, will bring out a wad of those 2016 non-participants who…will not vote for President Trump.
First, there is an upsurge of young people who will be eligible to vote in 2020. Fifteen million of these young citizens turned 18 since the last Presidential election. Younger folks tend to be less conservative than their elders; i.e. more progressive, more open to racial and sexual equality, less hidebound to “old” ideas. Trump will have a problem with this group, which tends to respect science, participate in social protest, and be staring at the likelihood of unemployment in the coming years.
To make matters worse, many popular social influencers are beginning to bag on President Trump. Social media, which worked for candidate Trump in 2016, will probably skin him alive this time around.
Second, Hillary Clinton is not on the ballot in 2020. Those Democrats who held their nose in 2016 don’t have to worry about her anymore, and they certainly are aware of the destruction that President Trump has wrought. Joe Biden is a mainstream Democrat, he stands for democratic ideals, speaks well, and has a discernable moral compass. He was Vice President for eight years under Barack Obama, who was popular with Democrats.
The “Anyone But Hillary” Democrats will return to the Democratic fold in 2020.
Third, the “Never Trumper” Republicans have been vindicated by President Trump’s performance. He is what they thought he was: unqualified, narcissistic, and untethered to traditional G.O.P. policy goals. Trump has embarrassed the “party of Lincoln” by his racist and seemingly fascist behavior and incessant rants. They couldn’t stand him in 2016 and won’t support him in 2020. Some of this cohort will switch parties in 2020.
Fourth, Black Americans did not support Hillary Clinton in 2016 with the same fervor as they did Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012: a lot of African American voters weren’t enthused by Clinton, and many were targeted by the G.O.P./Russian voter suppression effort.
It will be a far different story in 2020. The Black Lives Matter social unrest, ignited by the George Floyd murder by Minneapolis police, has the African American community enraged and stimulated to demand change. Racist Donald Trump represents the “status quo”, and his comments that protesters are “thugs”, “hoodlums”, “communist rioters”, and the like have insured that he will secure close to zero support from this voting bloc. Minorities, including Mexican Americans and Asian Americans, which the President has been fond of targeting with abusive and derogatory tweets, will show up this time around. To make matters worse, influential celebrities like LeBron James, Beyonce, Barack and Michelle Obama, and Dwayne Johnson are turning up the heat on the President.
Trump will be routed in this voting group.
As noted earlier, older Americans tend to be more conservative and be more reliably Republican. These folks voted strongly for Trump in 2016. There will be fewer of them in 2020, because of normal mortality plus the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
And then, there will be an “attitude adjustment” among this voting bloc having to do with President Trump’s flaccid performance re: the Covid-19 pandemic and his continuing seeming indifference to this scourge, which targets older Americans. Many people who have been nominally included in Trump’s “political base” are going to punish the President’s disloyalty to them (i.e. their health) in 2020.
It is, frankly, hard to discern where President Trump might recruit new voters in 2020.
The President’s pre-pandemic economic policies (i.e. igniting trade wars with virtually every nation on earth) were not delivering promised returns to farmers in the Corn Belt, nor with coal miners in Appalachia, nor with manufacturing companies and their workers in the Rust Belt. Tariffs equal lost customers, and Trump’s response (crop subsidies), while helpful economically, are hard to swallow for Midwesterners, who prefer to earn their living. These blue-collar folk voted strongly for candidate Trump in 2016. He’s going to lose some votes with this group the next time around because he hasn’t delivered the prosperity he promised.
The Administration has done its best to un-regulate industry, support gun rights, and protect religious liberty by packing the courts with 200 conservative judges, many of them out-and-out political hacks with no judicial experience. This will be the lasting legacy of the Trump Presidency, a gift that keeps on giving (bad law) for decades. So, the extreme hard-ass Trump political base will come through for their leader who fulfilled this promise.
However, demographics work against this cohort from enlarging any significant amount.
(Having said that, the President probably lost some of his military veteran support this week when it was revealed that the Russian’s put a bounty on American soldiers in Afghanistan (to reward the Taliban for killing them), that the President was briefed on it, and did nothing to his buddy, Vladimir Putin. Not surprising, since Putin helped elect him, but definitely a kick in the pants to the military and our veteran soldiers.)
In summary, with four months left in this election year, things look bleak for the re-election of President Trump. At this point, Joe Biden isn’t really campaigning; he’s allowing Donald Trump the stage to embarrass himself with stupid press conferences, Tweet rants, and Administration missteps. It must be fun for Biden to watch, down in his basement, sipping on his Ensure. Lot’s of laughs.
There are three things going on in America right now: the Covid-19 pandemic; the economic collapse; and social unrest. President Trump has strategically positioned himself on the wrong side of each issue. He’s declared the pandemic a hoax; it’s killed 120,000 Americans already. He promised promised a V-shaped economic recovery; unfortunately, it looks more like an L-shape. And, he sided with cops and police unions in regard to racial disparity in law enforcement and the issue of police brutality; and the beat (and beatings) go on, accompanied by tear gas, truncheons, and illegal chokeholds…on non-violent protesters.
Donald Trump campaigned to “Make America Great Again”. Once elected, he set about demolishing existing treaties and alliances with other countries, bad-mouthing and imposing tariffs on traditional allies, and threatening to pull U.S. funding from international agencies such as the U.N., the W.H.O., and NATO. We’ve basically become an island unto ourselves, with everyone pissed off at us. This week, because of America’s amateurish response to the Covid-19 pandemic, European countries have banned U.S. citizens from visiting their countries. Our self-proclaimed “exceptionalism” has been replaced with universal mockery and contempt.
People who care about our once great country are not pleased at this turnabout in our prestige.
Public opinion polls indicate that Joe Biden is gaining support relative to all three issues, and Donald Trump is losing support. Overall, the President’s job performance, as judged by many polls, is hovering around 40 percent approval…and sinking.
Without cheating, he can’t win the 2020 election unless some miracle occurs. And it appears that Trump could drag down the rest of the Republican ticket, as well. The Senate could fall into Democratic hands for the first time in quite a while. Heaven forbid.
Time for the 3-Step plan?