It’s been several weeks since the Trump Administration recommended that all Americans wear face masks to help halt the spread of the coronavirus.
I am wearing one now when I leave my house to go to the grocery store, the post office, or the hardware store. I feel it is the courteous thing to do; in case I have an asymptomatic case, I won’t accidentally spread it to others. In this community, that’s especially important, since we are all age-wise and health-wise high risk to be harmed by Covid-19.
However, most people that I see out and about are not wearing masks. I wonder what they’re thinking, or if they’re even thinking at all.
They could be receiving their cue from the President and his staff, who brief the country almost every day on the pandemic…without face masks…and who were the officials who recommended the safety measure in the first place.
They could alternatively be taking the dismissive attitude of Fox News talking heads, who have tended to downplay the seriousness of the epidemic and, then, pandemic
This so-called “news” organization seems to want to view the Covid-19 catastrophe as primarily a political and economic matter, rather than a medical and human crisis. Fox News is the most-watched cable TV news program, so its opinions and treatments of the pandemic hold a lot of sway with viewers. If “flattening the curve” isn’t important to Fox News, it is understandable if their audience isn’t receptive to health experts’ recommendations.
(As of yesterday, there have been 18,637 deaths and 500,000 reported Covid-19 infections in the United States. And, both figures are undoubtedly low, because of the lack of testing availability and processing.)
Some hoax!
Or, these mask-less citizens could just be reckless: there’s no law against being stupid.
The Trump Administration’s orchestration of America’s response to the coronavirus pandemic has been inept by any standard. It only takes a straightforward comparison of the U.S death toll with that of Asian countries to understand the scale of the failure. The U.S. now has experienced 62 deaths per million people. Hong Kong, Japan, and Taiwan all have less than 1 death per million. China, South Korea, and Singapore each have less than 5 deaths per million. India, thus far, has 0.2 deaths per million. Except for America, these countries took immediate, strong actions to combat the spread of the virus. The Trump Administration, on the other hand, lost a couple of months arguing whether the pandemic was even a real threat.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks.
Although the United States is experiencing 2,000 deaths per day from Covid-19 right now, the Administration is chomping the bit to relax the social distancing measures sooner rather than the “later” that health experts recommend. The President seems fixated on May 1st, which is only 19 days from now.
(BTW, “May Day”, May 1st, is big in Russia. I think they hold a big military parade in Moscow, something President Trump has been publicly envious of. He also has political connections with that country; i.e. the 2016 election. Maybe that’s why he’s so focused on that date?)
The President says, “It’s the most difficult decision I’ve ever had to make as President.” But, actually, HIS decision would be to recommend an action.
In fact, Governors will be the elected officials who re-activate the economies in their respective States, and, thus far in this drama, they’ve made their own decisions. Some rural states haven’t imposed draconian measures, and others have issued “stay at home” guidance less than enthusiastically. Those states, mostly Republican, will probably be anxious to follow the President’s lead. Other states, the more urban ones where the medical crisis has been severe, will probably be very slow to relax quarantine measures, wanting to make sure to avoid a second wave of infections.
(In 1918, the Spanish Flu killed millions in a world-wide pandemic. It, like Covid-19, started in the Spring (the first wave). A second-wave of the flu was more deadly, occurring in the Fall of 1918. Babe Ruth, who then played for the Boston Red Sox, got a mild case of the virus in the Spring and then acquired a stronger dose in the Fall. Luckily for Ruth, and baseball history, The Bambino survived two doses of the Spanish Flu.)
President Trump wants desperately to kick-start the economy soon because it’s an election year, and he measures his success (and, he wants voters to do the same) by the stock market. It’s down right now, some 20 percent below its peak in February. Nearly 17 million Americans have filed unemployment claims since mid-March. Government stimulus efforts to halt the slide into recession have not yet taken hold.
I am a cynical guy, I’ll admit it.
I hope I’m wrong, but I’m thinking that something dicey might be in the works regarding the President’s upcoming “decision”.
First, he is itching to re-ignite the economy; it’s going to “boom”, he keeps saying.
Second, he’s putting together a “task force” to advise him on the timing. If it’s like any other task force he’s put together, the players will be “yes” men, and the recommendations will be tailored to whatever notions the President has prior to the task force meeting.
Third, although epidemiologists are universally in favor of mass testing to enable the eventual extinguishment of the virus, the President is not. He’s publicly pooh-poohed the idea several times. I think the reason is that, if we don’t know how widespread the virus epidemic is, rationalizing the re-opening of the economy is easier. Without an actual measurement, the President can claim that we’ve whipped Covid-19, even if we haven’t.
Example: The Miami Herald reported today that the State of Florida is under-reporting its Covid-19 test backlog. The State claims that there is a 1,400 test backlog; however, those numbers don’t include the 90 percent of all tests conducted in the State by private labs. This is an example of half-hearted test reporting by a State that was reluctant to issue “stay at home” orders, and which is extremely anxious to end them. If Governor DeSantis, a big Trump booster, under-reports his State’s epidemic, it will appear to have eased, and the political decision to re-open the economy will be easier.
As with most things Donald Trump does, his focus is short-term gain. Problems that may arise from prematurely re-opening the economy can be dealt with later…in his mind.
Something that may derail the President’s intentions on this matter would be the actions of two Governors: Cuomo of New York and Newsom of California. Cuomo is going to be reluctant to relax restrictions, given the tremendous toll the epidemic has had on his jurisdiction. He’s not going to want a second wave of infection. Newsom is going to be driven by data, not politics, which is the opposite of President Trump. California’s economy is the fifth largest in the world, and Newsom is going to be careful not to screw it up by acting rashly. Both Cuomo and Newsom govern strongly-Democratic states, and they are very popular right now, so the President has little political leverage over them.
Illinois, Michigan, Georgia, Louisiana, and Florida (see above) will be key in the coming two weeks. Covid-19 infection is well-established in those states, and the worst is yet to come for them. It is hard to envision the epidemic “curve” flattening out in those states before the end of April.
I predict more political gamesmanship in the Spring and Summer with regard to this Covid-19 situation. Infection rates are going to be minimized by actors in Republican states, expert advise is going to be ignored, and the Covid-19 exposure to many Americans will be continued for longer than necessary because some governmental leaders will put personal political goals above those of the citizens who elected them.
(UPDATE: On April 14, an organization funded by the family of Cabinet member Betsy DeVos (Secy of Education), threatened a suit against the State of Michigan for its stay-at-home restrictions because it limited citizens right to freely move about. On the same day, Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas and father of former White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders, filed a suit against the State of Florida for restricting property owners on Florida beaches from congregating on the beach during the stay-at-home quarantines. The gamesmanship has begun.)
The worst thing that could happen to us all is a U-shaped curve (of infection). That would occur if, after the epidemic peaks and declines, the nation relaxes its guard, and Covid-19 infections spike again. Epidemiologists strongly recommend that we stay the course and kill the beast before high-fiving ourselves. If we don’t, our Nation will have to endure several “shut-downs” of society and the economy. It would be a demoralizing outcome, considering how much we have suffered already.
Let’s hope the political gamesmanship doesn’t result in a “second wave” of Covid-19.
I’m not like Babe Ruth: one batch of this shit is enough for me!
(BAD NEWS UPDATE: Sunday, Apr 13th, Japan’s Hokkaido prefecture, which was a hot spot of infections when the pandemic swept through Asia a few months ago, and where the stay-at-home directives were lifted on March 19th, has experienced a “second wave” of Covid-19 infections. The Governor of Hokkaido yesterday issued a State of Emergency, re-instituting restrictions on public gatherings and closing schools until May 6th. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has also issued a state of emergency for several other prefectures, in and around Tokyo and Osaka.)