I’m in my “stay-at-home” foxhole here in Mesquite, Nevada, watching the cactus grow.
I hit some range balls this morning, picked a few weeds, and checked the news on the Web.
Most of it wasn’t good, except that the stock market is recovering a bit. It’s hard to know what’s on traders’ minds, particularly when the news is so bad. They must know something we don’t. Or, they’re wired to be optimistic; after all, they’re salesmen.
Let’s all hope their hunches are correct.
President Trump has done a lot of cheerleading this past week, alluding to “light at the end of the tunnel”, boosting new medicines that promise to “treat” coronavirus, and asserting that “all of the Governors are thrilled with the job the Administration is doing”.
It’s bullshit, of course, but…what do you expect? He’s a salesman, he enjoys lying, and he’s getting his mug on TV each day, which is what makes him happiest.
And, he helped goose the Dow Jones up a bit.
White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham “resigned” yesterday. She held the position for seven months without ever holding a White House press conference. Grisham did, however, make herself a fixture on Fox News, appearing some three dozen times to puff up her boss. Evidently, it wasn’t enough.
The incoming WH Press Secretary, the fourth under President Trump, will be Kayleigh McAnany, who was previously a Trump campaign spokesperson. She is famous for saying, in February, “We will not see diseases like the coronavirus come here” in defense of President Trump’s lack of concern about the approaching public health Tsunami.
The horrific daily coronavirus death toll is, apparently, about to peak in New York, but the infection rate and mortality stats are beginning to mount in Louisiana, Michigan, and Florida. California, the most populous state, and which started the stay-at-home social distancing trend, seems to be suffering less than some other states.
As of today, 420,000 “official” infections and 14,000 “official” deaths in the United States.
That should be a lesson for others, but there are still a bunch of states in the Bible Belt doing business as usual. (They should be mindful of the old sailors’ saying, “Call on God, but row away from the rocks.”)
The “official” Covid-19 infection and mortality statistics in the United States are undoubtedly lower than actual.
As a Nation, we’ve still tested just a fraction of our population ( less than 2 million tests out of 350 million potential victims) for this invisible disease, one which can infect a person with little or no outward symptoms. So, there are probably hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of citizens who have or have had the coronavirus…all of whom are capable of transmitting it to others in the first couple of weeks of infection.
The good news is that most people recover from the virus. The bad news is that we don’t know who those lucky ones are, so we can’t track where they might have acquired the virus and then passed in on to others. And, if they survived the virus, they would have antibodies which would be useful in developing vaccines. Most importantly, if they’ve survived a Covid-19 infection, they would have immunity and would, theoretically, be safe to go back to work. The economy could use that right now.
I read today an article which discussed the mortality rates being attributed to Covid-19.
Lots of people die every day, at home, so they’re not all patients in hospital ICU’s with a confirmed diagnosis. Coroners/morticians are warning that the “official” mortality stats are low, because most of these professionals haven’t had sufficient testing kits to determine if the poor souls coming in died of Covid-19 complications or routine pneumonia, heart failure, or such.
(We will know, after the fact, what the actual mortality from Covid-19 is in America. There is a “normal” mortality percent in a population, within a reasonable margin of error, due to old age and medical issues affecting people. Let’s say that, in an average year, 20 million people die from medical problems and old age. If, in 2020, that number spikes by 3 million, it would be reasonable to assume that the increase is due to the pandemic.
If we did mass testing, and had a large enough sample, epidemiologists could extrapolate the mortality rate for Covid-19. FYI, officials in Italy, which has had 16,000 “official” deaths thus far, expect that the actual number of coronavirus victims is at least twice that number.)
So, probably more than anything else, for the pandemic and the economy, our #1 national priority right now should be mass testing.
I read another article, last week, which involved the original Covid-19 test kits that were distributed by the CDC. For some reason, they were defective, and about a month was lost before “good ones” were shipped out. And, then, another problem developed: the results of the test had as much as a 40 percent error in determining a “negative” finding. That is, 40 percent of those who were determined to be non-infected were, when later re-tested, actually infected with Covid-19.
Oh, Boy, talk about a cluster fuck! I hope the folks who developed these test kits weren’t paid. (They probably should be taken out and shot.)
I don’t know anyone who has been tested. That includes neighbors in Mesquite, friends from Southern California, or relatives. I’m guessing that the only people who are being tested are those who show up at hospital emergency rooms…because of the lack of testing kits. By that time, of course, they’re sick and have probably infected their spouse and some friends and relatives.
Health providers have been working non-stop for a couple of months now, endangering themselves with inadequate protective gear. It’s criminal. And, some of them, doctors at besieged emergency rooms who have had to “triage” patients (i.e. decide, on the spot, which ones were going to get a ventilator and which ones were not) will likely suffer PTSD after the dust settles on this pandemic.
My heart goes out to them: It was difficult enough making the decision to put down our dog, JayJay. I can’t imagine how gut-wrenching it must be to do the same with a human being.
On another subject, the Federal economic “lifeline” funding program for small businesses is turning into a nightmare for those besieged entrepreneurs.
The SBA is “in charge”, but has punted responsibility to major banks, which are to process the paperwork and distribute the funds. After one day, the network of banks was overwhelmed by the volume of applications, websites went down, application form discrepancies were identified, and tens of thousands of small business owners were frustrated, then annoyed, and then mad. After a few days, many of the banks had run out of money…with just a fraction of the applications processed.
Charlie is helping her clients deal with this cluster fuck, and it’s tough. There’s yelling, crying, and gnashing of teeth, as these desperate business owners try to navigate unfamiliar waters. They are not happy with the Federal government right now.
The news today is that Congress is going to be asked for another $250 billion for this program. And, in my opinion, that will be too little, too late…assuming most of it actually gets to the small business owners who need it.
A similar debacle is occurring with Unemployment claims processing in the various states. Too many claimants are overloading systems designed to process, at max, maybe one tenth of the volume.
Laid-off workers can’t get through on the State websites or by phone to file their claims. I saw a young lady from Las Vegas on TV who has made 50 calls per day for ten days straight to the State unemployment office and hasn’t been able to get through. While being interviewed on TV, she dialed the number and the result was a recording “Experiencing high volume of calls right now; call back later.”
The Feds and the States had better get their acts together quickly or there will be civil unrest. “People gotta eat.”
Ominous, related, news this week:
“GUN SALES HAVE SKYROCKETED LATELY“
In other news, the commanding officer of the U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier was unceremoniously fired by the acting Secretary of the Navy, who publicly called him “stupid” and “naïve”) for alerting his superiors and others about a Covid-19 epidemic on his ship. Someone leaked his distress call to the press and, evidently, the SecNav though it was an embarrassment to some Big Shot upstairs, so he made the captain “walk the plank”.
When the Roosevelt docked, and the humiliated patriot/captain disembarked, his assembled crew (of 5,000 sailors) gave him a rousing cheer of support…because he’s had their backs.
It turns out that at least 200 of the crew have already tested positive for Covid-19, with another 2,500 sailors yet to be tested. Oh, and the fired captain of the ship…he’s tested positive, as well.
(UPDATE: After 48 hours of bad press, the acting Secretary of the Navy “resigned” today. He probably got the word from the Big Shot upstairs: “Son, I’ll handle my own public relations stunts. YOU’RE FIRED!”)
Mr. Positivity has devoted a lot of facetime on TV lately promoting a specific drug, which was developed to treat malaria, as some sort of prophylactic medicine for Covid-19. His medical experts have reminded him on numerous occasions, publicly, that there are no studies which confirm the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine as a Covid-19 therapy, but the President, who is not a doctor or medical researcher, just feels good about it in his “gut”.
Like he did about Barack Obama being born in Africa.
Mr. Trump desperately wants to believe that there is a short-cut cure for coronavirus, so…he’s going to promote it, even though it may simply be snake oil.
Of course, if it turns out to be exactly that, he will deny ever having recommending it or even mentioning it in public. He’ll blame the “confusion” on Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Chinese, or maybe Hillary Clinton’s e-mail server. Count on it.
Understandably, there is a frantic race to come up with a vaccine or wonder drug to defeat this invisible enemy. The President will probably authorize all manner of short-cuts in the Federal approval process for those laboratories searching for the cure. I get that; he’s desperate to get this thing over. However, all medicines have side effects, and the reason there are strenuous testing requirements is to make sure that the resultant medicine doesn’t do more harm than good.
Or, do nothing.
Hydroxychloroquine, the President’s presumptive drug of choice for the pandemic, has never been tested as a Covid-19 therapy. Actually, nothing has, because this particular coronavirus is so new. In order to determine if hydroxychloroquine has any noticeable, positive impact on Covid-19 remission, it would have to be tested in a fairly large study against the performance of a placebo. That hasn’t happened.
So, what we have here is some anecdotal evidence (supplied by ex-Mayor Rudy Giuliani, it is reported!) that the drug “works”.
That is not science. If someone who is Covid-19 positive takes the drug, and survives, does that mean that it works? No, because at least 95 percent of those infected don’t die…without hydroxychloroquine. What if someone takes the drug prophylactically (i.e. so they won’t become infected)? Well, most people don’t get infected in the first place, so nothing new would be learned without a very extensive survey. So, No, nothing can be learned about taking the pill “just in case”.
And, taking the drug when one may not need to accomplishes two things: (1) Makes the supply of that drug less available to those patients it was developed for; and, (2) Puts the pill-popper at risk from side effects. It would be tragic if someone, after being egged-on by the President of the United States, developed permanent heart problems or vision damage (two known potential side effects) from a drug that he/she didn’t need to take.
Ambulance-chasing lawyers are going to love this.
Prayer is, arguably, as effective as the President’s new wonder drug. Who can prove that it doesn’t help in some way? (Which is why selling God and selling snake oil are so easy. And, probably why Trump is promoting this drug: Who can prove him wrong?)
The President is also providing dubious leadership when it comes to halting the spread of the virus. On the day the President announced his Administration’s position that all Americans should wear facemasks in public to halt the spread of the virus, he publicly noted that he, personally, would not wear one. And, the rest of the Administration officials at the public announcement weren’t wearing them either. And, haven’t since.
“Do as we say, and not as we do.”
Tremendous leadership. Bravo!
Lots of confusing signals and hogwash coming out of D.C. these days.
The hubbub over the President’s “miracle drug” is a metaphor for much of what’s going on now in America. Lots of panicky people, lots of rumors and conspiracy theories, and lots of homemade remedies, both medical and political. We’ve never been through this before, so all of us, politicians and citizens, are winging it, trying to cope as best we can.
There’s a popular rumor circulating (600,000 “views”) that the development of 5G wireless technology caused Covid-19. I think it was started by the same guy who claimed that the Moon landing was faked.
Hollywood script writers couldn’t make this stuff up.
You know that things are dire when President Trump appoints his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to lead a high-level task force.
Mr. Kushner, who has no government (or medical) experience, and who’s claim to fame is that he is the son of a wealthy real estate developer and the husband of Ivanka Trump, seems to be the “expert” that the President always turns to when he needs complicated problems resolved.
Kushner’s latest assignment: heading up the Coronavirus Task Force “Working Group”. Actually, the President publicly assigned Vice President Pence this responsibility a few months ago. Evidently, Pence isn’t cutting it, or the Prez wanted someone with real “chops” on the job.
Son-in-law Kushner is the unpaid “Senior Advisor to the President” who brokered the Middle East Peace Plan, unveiled in January, 2020, which was declared “dead on arrival” by all Palestinian principals except Israel. It was a colossal waste of time, and pissed off the very people it was supposed to bring together.
To use one of the President’s favorite descriptors, the Plan was “perfect”.
Mr. Kushner was publicly dismissive of the coronavirus threat early on, called it a media “exaggeration”, and helped write the March 11, 2020 Presidential Address to the Nation that was universally “panned”. (Yes, that’s the disastrous speech Trump made the night before the Stock Market crashed.)
“Perfect speech, Son!”
Is the United States of America really best served by an Administration that is populated by “acting” officials, relatives of the President, bootlickers, non-experts, and a President who insists on assuming the role of his own Inspector Generals…to root out his own corruption and malfeasance?
It has become pretty apparent, in 2020, that our President prefers lapdogs to watchdogs, and conspiracy kooks to experts.
This is what we’ve come to, “Making America Great Again”.