I love Craps.
Not the kind you’re thinking of, pervert! I’m talking about the casino table game where there’s usually a lot of hootin’ and hollerin’ going on, where big money can be made (or lost) pretty fast. There’s nothing more exciting than having some chips in play when a dice thrower is “on a roll”; it’s a huge adrenaline rush, particularly since virtually all the other gamblers at the table are rooting for the “shooter” to succeed.
There are numerous bets one can make at a Craps table. Most of them are “sucker” bets, ones where the “house” (i.e. the casino) enjoys pretty strong odds that the bettor will fail. Gamble-a-holics, folks who want to believe in miracles and Lady Luck, tend to throw money at these exotic bets that may pay 6 to 1, 10 to 1, or even 30 to 1. It’s pretty safe to say that, if the table clearly advertises the odds on a bet, it’s a bad one.
The best Craps bets are the ones that are not advertised: Come/Pass Line bets with “odds”. Basically, when you establish a number with a Come/Pass Line bet, you are hoping that your number will be rolled before a 7 is rolled. The odds of that happening are not in your favor, with a small percentage advantage to the house.
That house advantage can be minimized by taking advantage of “odds” on your original bet, and it is possible, based upon house rules, to increase your odds bet with each roll of the dice. One might start with a $25 Come/Pass Line bet, the shooter rolls a 6, which becomes your number, and you back your original bet with another $75. Now, you’re hoping the shooter rolls a 6 before he rolls a 7. If he does, you get your money back plus $25 on your original bet, plus you get your $75 back plus another $90 on the odds bet.
It is perfectly legal to make as many bets as you want between rolls. So, typically, a “Pass/Come Line” bettor might have several “numbers” that he’s betting on the table. It’s possible, in that way, to make a lot of money on each roll of the dice…as long as the shooter stays hot, avoiding a 7. When you hear great roars in a casino, it is an indication of a hot roller at work, with a dozen gamblers at the table rooting for their hero.
A “cold” table is the antithesis of that situation, where 7’s are thrown a lot, dashing the hopes of the get-rich-quick guys.
Gamblers are superstitious people, and they get very upset, very fast, when someone queers a hot roll or does something to upset a hot table. Number One on the list of boner spoilers is the arrival at the table of a spoilsport that we will call “Mr. Don’t Pass”. His strategy is to bet in favor of the house; i.e. he is hoping that the shooter rolls a 7.
When such a guy sidles up to a craps table and places a “Don’t Pass” bet, it is as if the Grim Reaper has shown up or someone with the plague has begun a throaty cough. The mood changes instantaneously from festive to funereal. A moment earlier, everyone was working together, having a great time. Now, everyone starts dreading the shooter’s next roll. And, usually (it seems) the good vibe turns to shit very quickly, the crowd roars turning to moans.
Bummer.
I was thinking of this type of mood swing yesterday when I read an update on the life of Michael Burry. He’s the guy portrayed by Christian Bale in “The Big Short”, the motion picture about the financial meltdown in 2008.
Mr. Burry (and a few other very smart people), realized that Wall Street and the financial industry as a whole had succumbed to greed, allowing the home mortgage industry to pile risk upon risk, while regulators looked the other way. Burry realized that the whole house of cards was about to collapse, and he bet a whole lot of money on that proposition. In essence, he was Mr. Don’t Pass, betting against millions of American investors, big Wall Street brokerages, banks, insurance firms, and Federal regulators.
Unfortunately, Michael Burry’s bet against everyone else paid off…he made a billion dollars when the market went tits up.
The reason that I bring this up is that Mr. Don’t Pass (Burry) showed up in the news again this past week. It turns out that some time ago, before the coronavirus shit hit the fan, he made another substantial bet against the American economy.
In the past thirty days, the Dow Jones Average has plummeted some 8,000 points, or about 27 percent. Top economists say we’ve entered a recession. Even President Trump, the world’s leading optimist, agreed yesterday.
Let’s hope that recession doesn’t turn into a depression.
Anyway, I don’t know if Mr. Don’t Pass’ bet against the 2020 economy had the effect of souring the mood of the other gamblers at the table (i.e. Wall Street speculators), but it is eerily reminiscent of 2008.
Maybe Donald Trump needs this smart guy on his advisory team?