Along with my friends Mac and Lloyd, I hiked this morning in the Mormon Mountains near Hackberry Springs. This area is located about 15 miles south of Mesquite on I-15 (turnoff) and then another 12 miles up into the hills via a dirt road.
We hiked about 8 miles today, over hill and dale, without seeing any animals or evidence of animals (scat), which is pretty rare in this part of Nevada.
We did notice that many of the sagebrush bushes were adorned with web-like pouches containing about-to-be-hatched caterpillars. Evidently, the female butterfly or moth deposits her eggs on the branches of the tree in the Fall, and those that survive the Winter mature into pupae and extrude a web-like material that encloses and protects them as they grow.
Here are a few photos:
The interesting thing, to me, is that we didn’t see one bird out there in the desert. Normally, caterpillars are almost irresistible to birds, and one would think that they would flock to these bushes at this time of the year for a free, tummy-filling buffet.
We did see one snake. He was a six-footer who was laying in the dirt road, evidently shedding some skin. Rather than running him over or harassing him, Mac used my hiking pole to lift him from the road and lay him in some soft dirt. He might have been a Gopher snake.
He looked alot like this guy:
Thank goodness that I have yet to encounter a rattlesnake on one of our hikes. We hike through the brush, in riverbeds, in in rocky areas…exactly where rattlers like to hide out. So far, so good.
A good portion of our drive to/from the Mormon Mountains, and some of our hiking time, was devoted to discussing the latest coronavirus/economic news.
Mac and Lloyd are big Trump honks, so they expend a lot of hot air passing on the latest Fox News conspiracy theories about the pandemic and upbeat thoughts about the Stock Market, which took a horrific beating today as we were hiking (I believe that the Dow Jones dropped 7.75 percent of its value).
In Mac and Lloyd’s opinions, the market is just going through a minor correction and will be back to full speed once the coronavirus jitters are over. Mac said, fearlessly, that he might jump into stocks now, “because they’re going to shoot back up!”
Because…the President said so.
I sure hope he’s right, but I am not so confident about the economy in general.
The stock market has been on the upswing for 11 years, and it was well overdue for a correction, no matter who was President. Trump supporters would like people to believe that a “bull” market can last indefinitely, but…that has never been the case in the past. “Bear” markets happen, periodically, as do recessions.
Right now, a number of things are conspiring to put the fear of God into investors.
First, the stock market is overdue for a correction. Optimism leads to exuberance leads to risk taking which, inevitably, results in the “bubble” bursting. A seven year “bull” run is a good one; it’s been eleven years now.
Second, 10-year Treasury bonds, a safe-harbor for investors in volatile markets, are being offered at .8 percent interest yield, an all-time low. Who invests in these instruments? Other nations and the super-rich, who want certainty and protection of their assets.
And, they are worried.
Third, as has usually been the case in the past, the raging Bull market optimism has encouraged investors and businesses to over-leverage themselves in the rush to make quick money. Now, if the economy shrinks, there will be a lot of loan defaults, which could seriously imperil the U.S. economy, a la 2008.
And, fourth, the coronavirus pandemic has hit many economic sectors very hard. There will be layoffs in the travel and leisure industries, global supply chains have been fouled up, factories have been shut down, and events which draw crowds are being canceled.
Saudi Arabia and Russia have responded to the global slowdown by dropping the price of crude oil, which affects oil producers in America. The U.S. economy, which the President predicted would grow by 2.5 to 5.0 percent this year, may not grow at all.
President Trump has famously claimed full credit for the economy’s 11-year growth, of which eight years took place under Barack Obama. He’s boasted about the stock market’s performance during his Administration, as if that were a referendum on his leadership.
My friends, Mac and Lloyd, typically agree that Trump is an ass, says and does a lot of dumb things, and talks too much about himself. But, they always have the comeback, “Yeah, but look at the economy!”
I certainly am not hoping for a recession; the last one was brutal. But, if the Nation does fall into one in the next few months, the timing couldn’t be worse for President Trump in an election year.
Our “stable genius” might actually have to campaign for re-election against whichever old white man the Democrats put up against him!